2026 Election Year Forecasts Shifts in Policy and Politics

By Hinman Straub, Special to NEAFA

New York’s 2026 election cycle is shaping up to be especially consequential. With the governor’s race at the top of the ticket and significant turnover expected in the State Legislature, the coming year will be an important opportunity to educate candidates, strengthen relationships, and ensure farm and food-system priorities are understood before the 2027–28 legislative term begins.

Governor Kathy Hochul is up for re-election in 2026, bringing heightened attention to statewide policy debates. At the same time, the Legislature that returns to Albany in 2027 will include many new members. This makes outreach and relationship-building essential in 2027.

A factor contributing to this turnover is the new limit on outside income for state legislators. Combined with retirements, primary losses, and other political factors, this change is accelerating a transition that will reshape overall leadership, committee leadership, regional representation, and the institutional memory in Albany.

In the Assembly, at least 30 new members are expected in 2027, including replacements for 25 members who did not seek re-election and five incumbents who lost their primary elections. In the Senate, at least seven new members are expected, including five members who did not seek re-election and two incumbents who lost their primaries.

New members are not the only change anticipated. Assembly Majority Leader Crystal Peoples-Stokes and Senate Deputy Majority Leader Mike Gianaris are not running for re-election, leaving the number two leadership position open in each house. These vacancies will further intensify the reshuffling of committee chairmanships, memberships, and leadership roles. Longtime Assembly Agriculture Committee Chair Donna Lupardo is also among the retirees, ensuring there will be a new chair. In addition, longtime Republican ranking member Chris Tague is running for State Senate. Although he is favored to win, there is no guarantee he will be assigned to the Agriculture Committee, much less serve as a member of that committee.

A final factor to consider heading into the general election is the likely ideological makeup of the Legislature in January. Current projections suggest there could be 16 Democratic Socialists of America-endorsed members in the New York State Legislature for the 2027 session. Following decisive victories in the June 2026 primaries, the DSA voting bloc is positioned to grow from its current nine-seat presence.

The projected 2027 breakdown includes:

·         New York State Senate: 4 members, up from 3.

·         New York State Assembly: 12 members, up from 6.

This shift is not limited to New York City. Democratic Assemblyman Bill Magnarelli, who has held office since the late 1990s, narrowly lost his primary to a DSA candidate.

Because many of these candidates are running on the Democratic ballot line in heavily Democratic districts, their primary wins give them strong paths to victory in November. Taken together, the turnover in membership, leadership, committee assignments, and ideological balance points to a Legislature that could approach familiar policy issues in new ways.